We Need to Talk About Inflation: 14 Urgent Lessons from the Last 2,000 Years

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We Need to Talk About Inflation: 14 Urgent Lessons from the Last 2,000 Years

We Need to Talk About Inflation: 14 Urgent Lessons from the Last 2,000 Years

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An] excellent and readable new book about the re-emergence of inflation.”—Larry Elliot, The Guardian Celebrated economist Stephen D. King-one of the few to warn ahead of time about the latest inflationary upheaval-identifies key lessons from the history of inflation that policy makers chose not to heed. From ancient Rome through the American Civil War and up to the asset bubbles of today, inflation stems from policy error, sovereign greed, and a collective loss of faith in currencies.

Since the 1980s, when the US government all but abandoned antitrust enforcement, two-thirds of all American industries have become more concentrated. In the final chapter, he looks at possible solutions including institutional constraints while offering the following 14 lessons:There must be monetary dominance over fiscal policy, not the reverse: the government should not be in the business of ‘printing money’ to fund its borrowing But none of this responds to the deeper structural issue – of which price inflation is a symptom: the increasing consolidation of the economy in a relative handful of big corporations with enough power to raise prices and increase profits. We all know what happened next. Central bankers were wedded to aworld that no longer existed. They thought the 2021 inflationary pressure was “transitory” and would soon peter out. It did not and, in fact, still looks stubborn across many countries in early 2023, despite the monetary tightening that has occurred so far.

As clients approach agencies, they need to be flexible. It's the necessary behaviour to get great work while controlling cost. Your agency's profit is not a cost of doing business, it's the motivation for an organisation to put all their efforts into your challenge. Help them maintain margin by being flexible in how other costs are managed. ii. have there been signs of monetary excess sufficient to indicate a heightened inflationary risk? And this is what the real income per capita numbers hide: large bouts of inflation create extreme winners and losers in quite undemocratic ways. Asudden bout of inflation obviously makes those on fixed incomes or stable government benefits alot worse off, while those for whom wage increases occur only infrequently see their purchasing power collapse. On the other hand, those who can borrow heavily and invest the funds in physical assets and real estate, or who have alot of pricing power over their labor, can often come out of inflationary periods sitting (relatively) pretty. These effects are often arbitrary and politically explosive. Test 1: Have there been institutional changes that would suggest an increased bias in favor of inflation? Unfortunately, by 2021, the answer was yes. The Fed’s move in 2020 to an average inflation targeting regime is one example. It created adynamic in favor of above‐​target inflation, King argues, because the public knew that central bankers would be less likely to react to big overshoots in inflation with big undershoots that risked about of much‐​feared deflation. The use of quantitative easing (QE) for over adecade, too, put downward pressure on bond yields, eroding the value of freely moving bond prices as an indicator of inflationary pressures. And central bank independence paradoxically made the monetary authorities less willing to spell out the inflationary consequences of large amounts of government borrowing when inflation started rising significantly; musing on this would be seen as too political. Why not? Industry experts say oil and gas companies saw bigger money in letting prices run higher before producing more supply. They can get away with this because big oil and gas producers don’t operate in a competitive market. They can manipulate supply by coordinating among themselves. Since the 1980s, two-thirds of all American industries have become more concentratedYou may also opt to downgrade to Standard Digital, a robust journalistic offering that fulfils many user’s needs. Compare Standard and Premium Digital here. A shame, because nothing is more topical than inflation at this point in time. But this book was poorly served by its structure. The book is genuinely interesting throughout, yet also wide‐​ranging, so choosing sections to review is difficult. But three areas where King has alot of particularly interesting things to say are on how policymakers might think about inflation’s persistence, why inflation matters, and the difficulties of alleviating modest inflation.

As with all the best economists, King’s views are grounded in an understanding of our historical experience.”—Roger Bootle, Daily Telegraph Everything you wanted to know about inflation but were afraid to ask. This book is timely, well-researched and very well-written.”—Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England I recently completed ‘The Lords of Easy Money’ - The differences in chronology and structure were telling. A FINANCIAL TIMES "BOOK TO READ IN 2023" "Everything you wanted to know about inflation but were afraid to ask."-Mervyn King "King's lessons command our attention."-Lawrence H. Policymakers are not easily able to distinguish inflationary squalls from periods of inflationary persistenceHow will the consumer react as the cost of living ratchets up? Right now, we don't know. It's been a very long time since there has been a comparable situation. We need our collective ears to the ground on this matter more than any other. That is your right. But you'd be advised to read this book first."-Stephanie Flanders From investors and monetary authorities to governments and policy makers, almost everyone had assumed inflation was dead and buried. In this I always look with admiration at Procter & Gamble. For a decade or more, it has looked unfavourably at any commercial proposal that doesn't embrace nearshore and offshore centres of excellence. It's a standard requirement for a global business that reaps the benefits of connecting great teams no matter where they are based. A damning critique. . . . King writes lucidly, avoiding the jargon that makes economics impenetrable to the lay reader.”—Edward Chancellor, Times Literary Supplement

Not just a useful and well-written account of inflation for the layman, but a contribution to a debate that is still very much live. A brilliantly clear and concise new history.”—Juliet Samuel, Times (UK) If you do nothing, you will be auto-enrolled in our premium digital monthly subscription plan and retain complete access for 65 € per month. Stephen Kind suggests four tests to determine whether inflation is persistent (these are, arguably, retrofitted):PDF / EPUB File Name: We_Need_to_Talk_About_Inflation_-_Stephen_D_King.pdf, We_Need_to_Talk_About_Inflation_-_Stephen_D_King.epub Some interesting conclusions though. In King’s view the argument used by central banks against tightening, that it was all just ‘transitory’, was fuelled by central banks having presided over a low inflation environment for nearly two decades, falling victim of their own anti-inflation propaganda. As a result, serious mistakes were made when circumstances suddenly changed. We saw the impact of the supply and demand imbalances when Covid restrictions ended and then the extra pressures on energy and food prices with the war in Ukraine. But in King’s view the reappearance of inflation in the last couple of years was not just “a series of unfortunate events” but should have been seen by central banks and acted upon more swiftly. My kind of inflation book. There is lots of great storytelling, which lightens the subject matter, and makes it accessible to non-experts.”—Moira O’Neill, Financial Times, “Best Summer Books of 2023: Money” If PepsiCo faced tough competition, it could never have gotten away with this. But it doesn’t. To the contrary, it appears to have colluded with Coca-Cola – which, oddly, announced price increases at about the same time as PepsiCo, and has increased its profit margins to 28.9%.



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